Some of the youngest American men and women currently deployed to Afghanistan were born after 9/11 and the U.S.’s invasion to defeat the Taliban and the Al Qaeda terrorists they harbored. Not only is it by far the longest war in U.S. history, but it is also one of our most complex and intractable conflicts, often only granting difficult choices and few degrees of certainty.

Over 2,300 US soldiers have lost their lives in the war and over 20,000 have been wounded, many of them gravely. And though it may no longer make the headlines, Americans are still fighting and dying in Afghanistan. To date, the U.S. has spent over $1 Trillion dollars on the war and related military activities in Pakistan. Even if the U.S. was to withdraw all combat forces soon, it is estimated the cost just to care for the war’s veterans for the next 30 – 40 years will be hundreds of billions of dollars.

In the same period, well over 100,000 Afghani civilians have been killed and many folds more severely wounded in the crossfire of the war or in the relentless terrorist attacks of a still undefeated Taliban. Many millions more have fled as refugees. These numbers only compound the estimates of up to 1.8 million Afghanis being killed during the Soviet’s war in Afghanistan. Many thousands more died in the following years dominated by the unending battles between vicious warlords, which eventually gave rise to the Taliban.

Total U.S. aid to Afghanistan since 2001 has surpassed $130 Billion – the total amount spent during all the years of the Marshall Plan to rebuild Western Europe after World War II. Well over half of the aid has gone to military assistance to build and support the Afghani army and police. Gains have been made in terms of education, health care, infrastructure and women’s rights. But in many ways, Afghanistan remains a failed and fragmented state, plagued by continuing bloodshed, widespread corruption, tribal divisions, and weak institutions.

For some, the withdrawal of U.S. combat troops is the best choice out of few good options. But that is tempered by the difficult reality that in the absence of US troops, the Taliban may once again control or influence much of the nation – and once more allow it to be a safe haven for terrorists determined to kill Americans.

Having served as both the U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan & Pakistan (SRAP) and the U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan, Ambassador Richard Olson has years of on the ground experience and a deep understanding of the difficulties faced by Afghanistan and the complicated choices for the United States. He will discuss: the realities of any possible peace deal with the Taliban; the outlook for the government and the people of Afghanistan; the role of Pakistan and other regional players; and the many implications of a potential withdrawal of U.S. military forces.